{"id":1770,"date":"2025-06-16T22:09:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T06:09:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/taichytomato.com\/?p=1770"},"modified":"2026-02-02T18:44:47","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T02:44:47","slug":"analysis-of-chinas-bulk-tomato-paste-export-trends-and-future-outlook-2025-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/taichytomato.com\/fr\/analysis-of-chinas-bulk-tomato-paste-export-trends-and-future-outlook-2025-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyse des tendances d'exportation de la p\u00e2te de tomate en vrac en Chine et perspectives futures (2025\u20132026)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>I. Situation actuelle (jusqu'au d\u00e9but de 2025)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Baisse significative des prix<\/strong><br>Comme le montre le graphique, le prix \u00e0 l'exportation de la p\u00e2te de tomate en vrac emball\u00e9e (\u22655kg) a chut\u00e9 d'un sommet de <strong>$1,288\/tonne en 2023<\/strong> to <strong>$669\/tonne au d\u00e9but de 2025<\/strong>, une baisse de pr\u00e8s de 50%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>D\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l'environnement d'exportation<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ralentissement \u00e9conomique mondial<\/strong> et demande affaiblie ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risques g\u00e9opolitiques croissants<\/strong>, notamment la guerre en Russie-Ukraine et le conflit en Mer Rouge, provoquant une incertitude dans le commerce mondial ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Offre exc\u00e9dentaire \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle mondiale<\/strong>: Le volume mondial de transformation de la tomate devrait atteindre <strong>45,8 millions de tonnes en 2024<\/strong>, en hausse de 4% par rapport \u00e0 l'ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente et de 20% par rapport \u00e0 2022.<br>Le volume de transformation en France a fortement augment\u00e9 pour atteindre <strong>11 millions de tonnes en 2024<\/strong>, une augmentation de <strong>37% par rapport \u00e0 l'ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente<\/strong> et <strong>77% sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 2022<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Pression de l'industrie nationale<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Plus de 80% de produits de tomate de Chine d\u00e9pendent des exportations, rendant l'industrie tr\u00e8s vuln\u00e9rable aux chocs externes ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Capacit\u00e9 exc\u00e9dentaire massive due \u00e0 l'expansion apr\u00e8s la hausse des prix des ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Les prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res restent rigides<\/strong>, provoquant un <strong>mismatch entre le co\u00fbt de production et le prix du march\u00e9<\/strong>;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La pression financi\u00e8re a conduit certains producteurs \u00e0 <strong>d\u00e9charger les stocks \u00e0 bas prix<\/strong>, ce qui d\u00e9prime encore plus le march\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Tendance des prix \u00e0 l'exportation des produits de tomate en gros (janvier 2022 \u2013 mars 2025)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-image uagb-block-d3640325 wp-block-uagb-image--layout-default wp-block-uagb-image--effect-static wp-block-uagb-image--align-none\"><figure class=\"wp-block-uagb-image__figure\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taichytomato.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u5fae\u4fe1\u56fe\u7247_20250617135427.jpg ,https:\/\/taichytomato.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u5fae\u4fe1\u56fe\u7247_20250617135427.jpg 780w, https:\/\/taichytomato.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u5fae\u4fe1\u56fe\u7247_20250617135427.jpg 360w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 150px\" src=\"https:\/\/taichytomato.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/\u5fae\u4fe1\u56fe\u7247_20250617135427.jpg\" alt=\"Prix des produits \u00e0 base de tomate emball\u00e9s en &gt;5 kg (USD\/tonne)\" class=\"uag-image-1773\" width=\"789\" height=\"375\" title=\"Prix des produits \u00e0 base de tomate emball\u00e9s en &gt;5 kg (USD\/tonne)\" role=\"img\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\">Source des donn\u00e9es : Douanes fran\u00e7aises<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>II. Pr\u00e9visions pour 2025\u20132026<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A. Perspectives \u00e0 court terme : reprise faible attendue<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Facteur<\/th><th>\u00c9valuation<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Surplus mondial<\/td><td>Les stocks restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s jusqu'en 2025<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Demande mondiale faible<\/td><td>Reprise de la demande lente sur les march\u00e9s cl\u00e9s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Instabilit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique<\/td><td>Incertaine persistante dans la logistique\/le commerce<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surcapacit\u00e9 int\u00e9rieure<\/td><td>Concurrence f\u00e9roce sur les prix continue<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>B. Moyen \u00e0 long terme : opportunit\u00e9s structurelles \u00e9mergentes<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Perturbations m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques en Europe<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les premiers rapports de 2025 montrent <strong>s\u00e9cheresses\/inondations en Espagne, en Italie, en Gr\u00e8ce<\/strong>, affectant les rendements ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>d\u00e9ficits de production dans l'UE<\/strong> pourraient cr\u00e9er une demande pour les exportations chinoises sur des march\u00e9s de substitution ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les march\u00e9s non sensibles \u00e0 la marque (Europe de l'Est, MENA) pourraient reprendre l'importation de concentr\u00e9 de tomate chinois.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Les prix faibles peuvent devenir un avantage concurrentiel<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Avec des prix \u00e0 un <strong>plus bas en 5 ans<\/strong>, les exportations chinoises pourraient redevenir comp\u00e9titives dans <strong>les canaux en vrac et de restauration<\/strong> une fois que les inventaires mondiaux se seront apais\u00e9s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Consolidation et polarisation de l'industrie<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petits acteurs inefficaces<\/strong> peut quitter le march\u00e9 ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les producteurs \u00e9volutifs, int\u00e9gr\u00e9s verticalement, gagneront des parts de march\u00e9 ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les entreprises leaders se tournent vers <strong>des produits \u00e0 valeur ajout\u00e9e (par exemple, sauces en bouteille, p\u00e2tes aromatiques)<\/strong> et les march\u00e9s de d\u00e9tail domestiques.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>III. Pr\u00e9vision des prix (indicative)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>P\u00e9riode<\/th><th>Prix d'exportation estim\u00e9 (USD\/tonne)<\/th><th>Tendance du march\u00e9<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q2\u2013Q3 2025<\/td><td><strong>650\u2013750<\/strong><\/td><td>Fond du march\u00e9, reprise faible des exportations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4 2025\u2013Q1 2026<\/td><td><strong>750\u2013880<\/strong><\/td><td>Rebond modeste possible<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2 2026 et au-del\u00e0<\/td><td><strong>880\u20131 050<\/strong><\/td><td>Reprise progressive si l'offre mondiale se stabilise<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>IV. Recommandations strat\u00e9giques pour les exportateurs fran\u00e7ais<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Stabiliser la production et ma\u00eetriser les co\u00fbts<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Renforcer le contr\u00f4le des co\u00fbts dans l'agriculture et les achats;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00c9viter la surexpansion face \u00e0 des marges faibles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strat\u00e9gie de march\u00e9 par niveaux<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Concentrer les efforts d'exportation sur des r\u00e9gions moins sensibles \u00e0 la marque (Afrique, Moyen-Orient, Europe de l'Est);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Recentrer l'attention domestique sur la restauration, le commerce \u00e9lectronique et les gammes de produits \u00e0 valeur ajout\u00e9e.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gestion des risques<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Surveiller de pr\u00e8s les taux de change, la volatilit\u00e9 des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et les risques li\u00e9s au transport;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>S\u00e9curiser des commandes anticip\u00e9es ou couvrir contre les fluctuations majeures des co\u00fbts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Explorer la diversification<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Envisager de se d\u00e9velopper dans <strong>p\u00e2te concentr\u00e9e en petits emballages, sauces ou aliments sant\u00e9 \u00e0 base de tomate<\/strong> pour augmenter la valeur par unit\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00e0 partir de \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>        WPTC :<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wptc.to\/consumption\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.wptc.to\/consumption\/\">Consommation mondiale en croissance lentement<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Actualit\u00e9s Tomate :<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tomatonews.com\/en\/consumption_67.html\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.tomatonews.com\/en\/consumption_67.html\">Rapport sur le march\u00e9 mondial : Tomates transform\u00e9es\u201d&nbsp;<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/taichytomato.com\/fr\/global-bulk-tomato-paste-market-analysis-and-export-outlook-2026-2027\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"3361\">Analyse des tendances d'exportation de la p\u00e2te de tomate en vrac en Chine et perspectives futures (2025\u20132026)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une analyse approfondie des tendances d'exportation de p\u00e2te de tomate en vrac en Chine, mettant en \u00e9vidence la dynamique offre-demande, l'\u00e9volution des prix et les principaux d\u00e9fis en 2025\u20132026.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1663,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Analysis of 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