Analysis of China’s Bulk Tomato Paste Export Trends and Future Outlook (2025–2026)

I. Current Situation (Up to Early 2025)

1. Significant Price Decline
   As shown in the chart, the export price of bulk packaged tomato paste (≥5kg) dropped from a peak of $1,288/ton in 2023 to $669/ton by early 2025, a decrease of nearly 50%.
2. Deteriorating Export Environment
   • Global economic slowdown and weakening demand;
   • Rising geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine war and Red Sea conflict, causing uncertainty in global trade;
   • Excess supply globally: Global tomato processing volume is expected to reach 45.8 million tons in 2024, up 4% YoY and 20% compared to 2022.
     China’s processing volume rose sharply to 11 million tons in 2024, a 37% YoY increase and 77% higher than 2022.
3. Domestic Industry Pressure
   • Over 80% of China’s tomato products rely on exports, making the industry highly vulnerable to external shocks;
   • Massive overcapacity due to expansion after previous years’ price surge;
   • Raw material prices remain rigid, causing a mismatch between production cost and market price;
   • Financial stress has led some producers to offload inventory at low prices, further depressing the market.

Export Price Trend of Large-Pack Tomato Products (January 2022 – March 2025)

Data Source: China Customs

II. Forecast for 2025–2026

A. Short-Term Outlook: Weak Recovery Expected

B. Mid-to-Long Term: Structural Opportunities Emerging

1. European Weather Disruptions
   • Early 2025 reports show droughts/floods in Spain, Italy, Greece, affecting yields;
   • EU production shortfalls could create demand for Chinese exports in substitute markets;
   • Non-brand-sensitive markets (Eastern Europe, MENA) may resume imports of Chinese tomato paste.
2. Low Prices May Become a Competitive Edge
   • With prices at a 5-year low, Chinese exports may regain competitiveness in bulk and food-service channels once global inventories ease.
3. Industry Consolidation and Polarization
   • Inefficient small players may exit the market;
   • Scalable, vertically integrated producers will gain market share;
   • Leading enterprises are pivoting toward value-added products (e.g., bottled sauce, flavoring pastes) and domestic retail markets.

III. Price Forecast (Indicative)

IV. Strategic Recommendations for Chinese Exporters

1. Stabilize Production & Control Costs
   • Tighten cost control in farming and procurement;
   • Avoid overexpansion amid weak margins.
2. Tiered Market Strategy
   • Focus export efforts on less brand-sensitive regions (Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe);
   • Shift domestic focus to foodservice, e-commerce, and value-added product lines.
3. Risk Management
   • Closely monitor FX rates, raw material volatility, and shipping risks;
   • Secure advance orders or hedge against major cost fluctuations.
4. Explore Diversification
   • Consider expanding into concentrated paste in small packaging, sauces, or tomato-based health foods to increase value per unit.
5. Date from :2024 Annual Report of Xinjiang Guannong Co., Ltd
   • WPTC:Global consumption growing slowly
   • Tomato News :Global Market Report: Processed Tomatoes”